A Little Exercise in Fare Predictions

Edmonton Trail Transit Service Radii

This diagram could use a little explanation.

What I wanted to do was see for myself whether a 504 Edmonton Trail Car would be crowded out or made redundant by previous proposals for light metro C-Train service through north-central Calgary. My hypothesis was that a tram serving more stops more slowly would attract more riders to stops within a 400-metre service radius than to light metro stations (serving fewer stations less slowly, natch) within a 600-metre service radius. To illustrate the conditions on the ground for this hypothesis, however, I needed to draw myself a picture. Thus the product of the magic of Microsoft Paint before your slavering fangs right now:


Line 203 of the C-Train (north to southeast) is the line in green, with smaller blue circles illustrating 400-metre radii from stations and larger, fainter blue circles illustrating 600-metre radii. Line 204 of the C-Train (the orbital line) is the line in orange, with smaller orange circles illustrating 400-metre radii from stations and larger, fainter orange circles illustrating 600-metre radii. The 504 Edmonton Trail Car, in contrast, is the line in red, with smaller yellow circles illustrating 400-metre radii from stops.

UPPITY DATE: I've run some calculations that show a target ridership for the 504 Car in the range of 2,219 to 3,573 daily passengers per mile. The most recent APTA numbers for the C-Train, in contrast, show 10,663 daily passengers per mile.